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IMF raises Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth forecast to 3.8% in 2024: economic momentum on the rise

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upward its growth projections for Sub-Saharan Africa, anticipating a rate of 3.8% in 2024, up 0.2 percentage points from the October 2024 estimates. For 2025, the outlook remains promising, with growth expected to reach 4.2%. These figures, detailed in the “World Economic Outlook January 2025”, highlight the region’s resilience despite persistent structural challenges.

Nigeria and South Africa: diverging economic paths

The region’s two largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, present contrasting trajectories:

  • Nigeria: Growth Strengthens to 3.1% in 2024
    Nigeria’s growth forecast has been raised from 2.9% to 3.1% for 2024, driven by robust performance in the services sector and increased crude oil production. Over the first three quarters of 2024, the country’s GDP demonstrated positive momentum, reaching 3.46% in Q3. President Bola Tinubu hailed these results as evidence of the country’s economic recovery, despite short-term impacts from ongoing economic reforms.
  • South Africa: A Concerning Decline to 0.8%
    In contrast, South Africa’s growth projection has been downgraded to 0.8% for 2024. The economy contracted by 0.3% in Q3, largely due to severe drought impacting the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors. However, the IMF remains optimistic, citing the reforms implemented by the national unity government formed in June 2024. These measures aim to set South Africa on a path of more inclusive and sustained growth.

Regional challenges and economic opportunities

Despite these advancements, Sub-Saharan Africa continues to grapple with significant challenges, including:

  • Regional conflicts,
  • Inflationary pressures exacerbated by global supply chain disruptions,
  • The adverse effects of climate change.

Nevertheless, the IMF predicts an acceleration of regional growth to 4.2% in 2025, supported by improved economic conditions in Nigeria (3.2%) and South Africa (1.5%).

A Favorable Global Context

Globally, economic growth is projected to remain at 3.2% in 2024. However, forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward to 3.3%, driven by stronger-than-expected performance in the United States, offsetting slowdowns in other major economies.

Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa

The IMF underscores the importance of continued structural reforms, infrastructure investment, and regional integration to strengthen the region’s economic resilience. Despite its challenges, Sub-Saharan Africa holds immense potential to accelerate economic transformation and attract increased investment.

These projections paint a picture of a region striving for stability and growth, where coordinated policies and strategic initiatives could pave the way for long-term prosperity. 

The Editor